PLEASE NOTE: Because the preliminary numbers are reported in half-hour intervals, no accurate estimates were already available for both Friends episodes and Will & Grace. I compared the preliminary timeslot ratings with average retention rates from previous weeks to form estimates for the ratings of these three shows. While these numbers will likely turn out to be reasonably accurate, they should not be assumed correct. Because the estimates are my own, please do not use them anywhere outside this message board without citing me as the source.
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I was going to start a new thread with this, but I don't want to flood the board with another ratings thread, so I thought I'd preface this week's ratings article with it...
FIVE REASONS THIS YEAR'S SEASON FINALE WILL PULL FEWER VIEWERS THAN IN THE PAST
1. Obviously, the biggest reason is the recent trend in the ratings. While the show remains very popular, the numbers are not nearly as high as they should be at this point in the season.
2. Most Friends season finales are huge television events. Last year it was Rachel having a baby, two years ago it was Chandler and Monica's wedding, and the list goes on. No sort of major event is set to take place this time around.
3. I'm glad the episode is 75 minutes, but in terms of the ratings, this means that the last 15 minutes, which are normally what spikes the rating so high because everyone tunes into the cliffhanger, are going to be up against the beginning of the season finale of CSI. CBS has also scheduled a repeat of CSI in place of Survivor, which means the entire finale will be up against the number-one show on television. Ouch!
4. The most hyped movie of the year, The Matrix Reloaded, debuts in theaters on Thursday night, so millions of people will be at the movie theater, not in front of a television. This will obviously hurt CSI, ER, Will & Grace, and Without a Trace, as well.
5. NBC had been the number-one network for awhile, but CBS overtook it in total viewers and Fox on several nights in adults 18-49 recently. As a result, the promos, which had already been struggling, are reaching a much smaller audience of "casual" viewers.
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DAN'S FRIENDS RATINGS
THE FRIENDS VS. SURVIVOR RATINGS BATTLE
YEAR 3, WEEK 33
A WEEK BEFORE ITS NINTH SEASON FINALE, FRIENDS REMAINS STUCK BELOW 20 MILLION VIEWERS AND IS UNABLE TO IMPROVE FROM LAST WEEK, FALLING AGAIN TO CSI AND A SPECIAL ER BUT RETAINING MORE THAN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO DEFEAT SURVIVOR: THE AMAZON
Fast National Ratings for May 8, 2003
The recent trend of slumping ratings continued for Friends this week. As the show approaches its ninth season finale, the numbers, while still very dominant, remain well below where they were last season. The thirty-five-minute episode on Thursday night was followed by a forty-three-minute repeat and a forty-minute Will & Grace. The preliminary ratings are reported in half-hour intervals, so because of this awkward scheduling, accurate numbers cannot yet be determined. Planet Dan has compared the preliminary timeslot ratings with average retention rates from previous weeks to form estimates for the ratings of these three shows, and while these numbers will likely turn out to be reasonably accurate, they should not be assumed correct. Coupled with the two hundredth episode of ER, this programming led NBC to a nightly win over CBS by a 0.5 average rating. Based on these estimates, the new Friends episode was the only program airing on NBC or CBS not to see an increase in its audience from last week. The numbers appear to point to the show remaining stuck below 20 million viewers for the second new episode in a row, the first time this has occurred in two years. However, Friends season finales have become major television events, so expectations remain high for next week's seventy-five-minute conclusion to the season.
Planet Dan estimates the numbers for the new episode of Friends to be a 12.6 rating and a 21 share, which ranks it third for the night and represents a slight drop from a 12.8/21 last week. The numbers, which would rank the episode second-to-last of the twenty-two that have aired so far this season, are well below those for the comparable episode last season, which pulled a 15.4/26. The Friends repeat that followed came away in fourth with a Planet Dan estimate of a 12.2 rating and a 19 share, up from an 11.6/18 for last week's repeat, which was split into two parts by President Bush's address. Meanwhile, Survivor: The Amazon finally saw its rating increase as it approaches the million-dollar finale, ranking sixth with an 11.3 rating and an 18 share, up from a 10.8/18 last week. CSI continued to dominate in first with a 15.7/24 (up significantly from a 14.6/22 for last week's delayed episode). The two hundredth episode of ER saw the biggest increase of the night, taking second place again with a 14.5/23 (up significantly from a 13.1/22 for last week's delayed episode). Will & Grace remained in fifth with a Planet Dan estimate of an 11.4/17 (up slightly from an 11.2/17 for last week's delayed episode). Without a Trace rounded things out in seventh with a 9.9/16 (up significantly from an 8.7/15 for last week's delayed episode). The ranks for all shows remained the same as last week.
Airing its ninth and penultimate season this year, Friends, the Emmy Award winner for Outstanding Comedy Series, continues to be the number-one comedy on television. However, in October, CSI overtook Friends as the number-one overall program, ending its run of over ten months on top, which included ranking as the most-watched program of the season for the first time last year. As of last week, CSI leads the current season with a 16.3/25 average, ahead of Friends' second-place 13.8/22, Joe Millionaire's third-place 13.3/19, and ER's fourth-place 13.0/21. Expect CSI to continue its insurmountable lead, while Friends has locked up its fifth season in a row as the number-one comedy. Next week will mark the ninth season finale for Friends. While the rating will obviously see a drastic increase, several factors may prevent it from being as high as most season finales of the popular comedy. In addition to the standard competition from Survivor: The Amazon, the final fifteen minutes of the seventy-five-minute episode, which usually features a spike in viewers for the now-famous cliffhanger, will be up against the first fifteen minutes of CSI. The most hyped movie of the year, The Matrix Reloaded, also hits theaters next Thursday night, so many viewers will likely be at their local theater instead of in front of their television. On top of this, there is not a significant event set to occur next week, unlike past finales that featured the likes of Chandler and Monica's wedding and Rachel giving birth. Taking all this and the recent ratings slump into account, while it certainly will not overcome last season's Thursday night record 35 million viewers, next week's episode should still draw viewers en masse.
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--DanG