Friends Ratings (Week 19) - R&R Fail to Find an Audience

Please note that these articles are written by me. Please do not use them without my permission. Thanks.

We're going to Ann Arbor this weekend for the basketball game, so I'll update with the final viewership numbers when I get back on Sunday.

To receive Friends Ratings Presented by Dan every week, join the e-mail list by sending a request to Dan Ginsburg at [email]. The updates include the fast national ratings from Nielsen Media Research, the weekly ratings article, and previews of upcoming episodes.

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FRIENDS RATINGS PRESENTED BY DAN

WEEK 19

ROSS AND RACHEL ARE UNABLE TO BOOST THE RATINGS, AS FRIENDS SINKS TO ITS LOWEST NEW EPISODE RATING OF 2004, THOUGH STILL TOWERING ABOVE SURVIVOR: ALL-STARS AND RANKING SECOND BEHIND CSI: CRIME SCENE INVESTIGATION IN THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY SWEEPS

February 19, 2004: Fast National Ratings from Nielsen Media Research

Friends kicked off the second half of February sweeps on Thursday night with its sixth-to-last new episode of its final season. Despite NBC's heavy promotion of the episode as a turning point for longtime romantic interests Ross and Rachel, the numbers fell a full rating point from last week's lengthened episode, pulling the lowest rating of the five new airings in 2004. The final numbers, due out soon, will likely show Friends struggling to pull 25 million viewers, and the rating should rank it in the vicinity of sixth out of the thirteen new episodes that have aired so far this season. Meanwhile, on Will & Grace's return to Thursday night, CBS increased its Thursday dominance thanks to another incredible performance by CSI: Crime Scene Investigation, besting NBC by a 1.3 average rating.

The thirty-three-minute episode of Friends pulled a 15.2 rating and a 24 share in second place, down significantly from a 16.3/25 for last week's special lengthened wedding episode. The numbers still remain well above the comparable episode from last season, which notched a 13.5/21. CSI: Crime Scene Investigation appears to have broken the 30 million viewer barrier for the second straight week, easily taking first with an 18.4/27 (up slightly from an 18.3/27 last week), while ER remained comfortable in third with a 14.4/23 (down slightly from a 14.5/23 last week). Survivor: All-Stars came away in fourth with a 12.9/20 (down slightly from a 13.0/19 last week), as Without a Trace scored a fifth-place 12.8/20 (up slightly from a 12.7/20 last week). Two shows tied in sixth, as Will & Grace returned to Thursday night with a 12.1/18 and The Apprentice retained all of its audience and matched the rating and share of its lead-in (up slightly from an 11.8/17 last week).

The series finale of Friends will air on May 6, 2004. An hour-long clip show featuring classic scenes from the show's ten-year history will air at 8:00 ET/PT (7:00 CT/MT), followed by the hour-long finale at 9:00 ET/PT (8:00 CT/MT). Later, at 11:35 ET/PT (10:35 CT/MT), The Tonight Show with Jay Leno will take place with the cast of Friends on the set of Central Perk. In addition, NBC is now accepting votes for its "Friends to the End" campaign, in which it will air viewers' six all-time favorite episodes from March 4 through April 8. In the season-to-date ratings, as of last week, CSI: Crime Scene Investigation retains the lead with a 16.3/24 average, well ahead of Friends' second-place 13.5/21 and ER's third-place 12.6/20. Of course, Friends' average is diluted by the number of reruns NBC has been forced to air because of the lower number of new episodes agreed on for the show's final season. To view the complete ratings chart for season ten of Friends, use the link in the chart near the top of the page. Next Thursday will mark the final week of February sweeps, as Friends will air its last new episode before six weeks of viewers' choice favorites. Just five new Friends episodes remain!

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Copyright � 2004 Dan Ginsburg. All rights reserved.

Final Viewership: 24.3 million viewers

Only up 0.1 million from the preliminary numbers, the lowest increase all season.

[email] (Dan Ginsburg) wrote in message news:...

But let's not neglect the fact that this episode (which featured RnR) was only .2 under the ratings for the season PREMIERE (featured JnR), which usually bring in HUGE numbers. And this episode also had more viewers than any of the episodes during which JnR were together.

[email] (Dan Ginsburg) wrote in message news:...

Notice the sleight of hand - 'lowest increase all season' instead of quoting actual number of viewers. This trick is straight from the book "How to Lie with Statistics".

Tenzing Norgay

I was only referring to the increase from the preliminary numbers to the final numbers, not the change from week to week. There is ALWAYS an increase from preliminary to final, so saying it is the lowest increase of the season is not some kind of trick, it is a fact. This basically means that the episode was watched less than usual in more rural areas, beacuse these areas are not included in the preliminary numbers but are in the final numbers.

In terms of weekly change, it was not an increase it all. It was a decrease of more than 1.6 million viewers.

--DanG

[email] (Dan Ginsburg) wrote in message news:...

Bill Gates walks into a salon consisting of 5 unemployed men at the bar. The average net worth of each man is now $10 billion. It appears no matter where Bill Gates goes one's avg net worth will ALWAYS increase.

That obvious statement is a FACT even though its logic is twisted. The LIE is in using the FACT to paint a picture according to one's agenda or personal bias.

You chose to use "lowest increase all season" or how "FRIENDS SINKS TO ITS LOWEST NEW EPISODE RATING OF 2004" as you wish to use the FACTS available to LIE about how 'R&R fail(ed) to find audience'. The ratings in reality cannot substiantiate those claims be it about R&R or J&R for that matter.

About the FACTS used in telling the LIE:
----------------------------------------

"lowest increase all season" - the episode drew over 24 mil viewers more than the season avg of 22.7 mil.

"FRIENDS SINKS TO ITS LOWEST NEW EPISODE RATING OF 2004" - The rating ranks a respectable 6th out of 13th episodes this season.

Tenzing Norgay

Yeah, you're right. The ratings can't factually substantiate any claims about storylines. The ratings simply tell us how many people watched, but not why they watched. However, the numbers dropped by 1.6 million viewers for an episode NBC heavily promoted for Ross and Rachel, and if you're going to objectively analyze the meaning behind the ratings, you also can't simply ignore that fact.

Also, I still think you're missing my point about the smallest increase from preliminary to final numbers. You might want to check out the A. C. Nielsen Web site. They explain how the ratings work. Since there is virtually always an increase from preliminary to final, it makes sense to analyze the size of that increase, and make a conclusion about the make-up of the audience based on the size of that increase for last Thursday's episode being the smallest of the season.

--DanG

[email] (Dan Ginsburg) wrote in message news:...

If your analysis is not based upon inherently correct principles, it is useless. Some time ago I had looked over the schedule of every MLB over the past 2 decades and I realised that I could find some sort of pattern that predicted market behavior. An example I found would be when the Seattle Mariners win by 2 runs or more on Tuesday night, and Randy Johnson did not pitch the game, soybeans rise 72% of the time the following day. You may laugh but I have seen methodologies and strategies sold to businesses that make as much sense as the one above.

If you were to argue that the ratings this season saw a decline as a result of overplaying the Rachel and Joey storyline at the expense of creative writing, I would probably agree with you.

The point was not to use the smallest increase in final numbers to conclude that R&R failed to find an audience. Especially when that episode did a lot better than the season avg.

Judging from the ending of TOW Princess Consuela, I'll say there is going to be a significant surge in ratings for the final 3 episodes. If the last 3 episode averages over 30 mil viewers would it be fair to say that audience tuned in to watch R&R?

TZ

And YOU'RE accusing ME of bias? You're basically saying that if the ratings drop during the Joey and Rachel storyline, it's because of the storyline, but if they drop during the Ross & Rachel storyline, it's just some bizarre coincidence. Strange how the numbers don't indicate anything of the sort...

Comparing an individual episode to the season average is pointless, because there is so much variance in the trend based on the time of year, the competition, the popularity of the show, etc. It's much more effective to look at the week-to-week trends. A drop that large is not due to simply chance. One of the first things you look at when the rating drops as much as it did last week is the competition, but Friends' competition last Thursday night had nearly identical ratings from the week before (and the audience share was the same).

Are you kidding me? If the last three episodes of one of the most successful comedies of all-time DON'T average 30 million viewers, there would be extreme disappointment from NBC. The network surely has promised their advertisers more than that, and would be stuck refunding them significant money.

Every time leading up to a Ross and Rachel episode in the past four seasons, there has been talk of finding out from that episode's rating if the storyline still had interest. Every time, the numbers are released, there is no evidence of improvement in the ratings, and people start coming up with another excuse and pointing to a future episode. Look, I'm also a Ross and Rachel fan, but I'm not ignorant to the fact that they don't have the ratings pull among casual viewers that they used to.

--DanG

[email] (Dan Ginsburg) wrote in message news:...

You need to take a deep breath and take a step back. What I am saying is that creativity gave way to overplaying a storyline, J&R, for two years with predictable results. Hardly anyone has anything good to say about this season. This put of a lot of J&R fans as well as R&R fans as neither couple now make any sense. Had they had a fresh idea, S10 would have opened with solid ratings like S8 and S9 and set the tone for the rest of the season, like the Rachel pregnancy storyline. This would have kept the audience interested. Did you blame the J&R storyline for the ratings in the first 3 episodes of the season?

If you were to compare it that way do not forget to include the quality of the previous week's show. I thought the wedding was a poor episode despite the promo. Plus do not forget about the other storylines in the current episode either. A grown man talking gibberish repeatedly isn't exactly my idea of funny sitcom. It made me wince.

Season average is telling in how the show is performing throughout the season. The writing has taken a steep dive and that is reflected in the season average that's below last season's average. Therefore a sold 6th placing out of 13th (now 14th) so far is very good not as bleak as you make it out to be.

At least there is some hope for you. Right you are.

Like the rise of soybean price to Seattle Mariner's win by 2 runs.

Yet the show's producers,despite the lack of ratings or poor showing have gone ahead with a build up of a R&R storyline in the last few episodes as 1014 indicates. Any possibility they know something you don't?

The finale will pull rating alright but imagine how mundane and less memorable it would look if there wasn't any element of anticipation for viewers to finally see if R&R do end up a couple or go their separate ways. How it pans out is anybody's guess. In the end that is what fans tune in to see some unpredictability, some anticipation and quality. Do these have anything to do with ratings? Hmm!

TZ

Not for the premiere, but for the drops following it, yes, I mentioned that. Ratings don't just change for no reason. There is always a reason why people start tuning in or stop tuning it, be it time of year, timeslot competition, show quality, storyline interest, etc.

--DanG

Nope, you're misinterpretting the meaning of the preliminary-to-final increase. It simply points to the composition of the audience. Refer to my response in the other thread...