****SPOILERS ENSUE****
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Everyone gives the possibility that it might be Chandler and Rachel's baby (among others). I say, maybe it's Monica's baby, but not with Chandler, hence her saying she wasn't pregnant, because she doesn't want him to know. Monica and Chandler were supposed to have that "no sex with each other" pact until the wedding (even though they probably broke it). But if they didn't and maybe Monica was again feeling worried that she would never have sex with someone different again, and then just wanted to have the best (Joey) before she was stuck with Chandler for the rest of her life. She got loaded on wine (they drink a lot of wine), and Monica's been known to get drunk. Then in a drunken stupor strolled over to Joey's -- Joey didn't even wake up, but only thought he was having another dream about Monica (he's had those in the past too).
"Huh, huh. Not just a hat rack my friend."
-John